Iran threatens war ‘beyond the region’ if US attacks

TEHRAN - Iran threatened on May 20 to spread war beyond the Middle East if the United States attacks again, after US President Donald Trump said he had come within an hour of restarting the military campaign.

Six weeks since Mr Trump paused Operation Epic Fury for a ceasefire, talks to end the war have largely stalled.

Iran submitted a new offer to the United States this week, but its public accounts of it repeat terms previously rejected by Mr Trump, including demands for control of the Strait of Hormuz, compensation for war damage, lifting of sanctions, release of frozen assets and the withdrawal of US troops from the area.

Mr Trump said on May 18, and again on May 19, that he had come close to ordering a new bombing campaign but had put it off at the last minute to give more time for diplomacy.

“I was an hour away from making the decision to go today,” Mr Trump told reporters at the White House on May 19.

Iran has repeatedly threatened to retaliate for any new attacks by striking countries in the Middle East that house US bases.

On May 20, it suggested it would also hit targets further afield.

“If aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will extend beyond the region this time,” the Revolutionary Guards said in a statement carried on state media.

In the latest diplomacy, Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that Pakistan’s interior minister had arrived in Tehran.

Pakistan hosted the only round of peace talks in April and has been conveying messages between the sides.

Chinese tankers cross Strait

Iran has largely shut the Strait of Hormuz to all ships apart from its own since the US-Israeli campaign began in February, causing the biggest disruption to global energy supplies in history.

The United States responded in April with its own blockade of Iran’s ports.

Iran says its aim is to reopen the strait to friendly countries that abide by its terms to use it.

That could potentially include fees for access, which Washington says would be unacceptable.

Two giant Chinese tankers laden with around 4 million barrels of oil exited the strait on May 20.

Iran had announced last week, while Mr Trump was in Beijing for a summit, that it had reached an agreement to ease rules for Chinese ships.

South Korea’s foreign minister said on May 20 a Korean tanker was crossing the strait in cooperation with Iran.

Shipping monitor Lloyd’s List said at least 54 ships had transited the strait last week, around double the number from the week before.

But that is still only a tiny fraction of the 140 or so each day that typically crossed before the war.

Bloomberg reported that India was preparing to send empty tankers through the strait into the Gulf to load up on oil for the first time since the war began.

Three Indian government sources told Reuters this was more of a hope for the future, with efforts still focused mainly on securing transit in the opposite direction: a way out for ships trapped in the Gulf.

Pressure to end war

Mr Trump is under pressure to end the war, with soaring energy prices hurting his Republican Party ahead of congressional elections in November.

Since the ceasefire in late April, his public comments have veered from threats to restart bombing to declarations that a peace deal was at hand, often in the same breath.

On May 19, he said the war would be over “very quickly”.

Vice-President J.D. Vance, who led the US delegation in April at the only round of peace talks so far, also talked up progress: “We’re in a pretty good spot here.”

The fluctuating US stances have sent oil prices bouncing up and down from day to day, though they have risen week by week since early May.

Benchmark one-month Brent crude futures eased about 2.75 per cent on the morning of May 20, to near US$108 a barrel.

“Investors are keen to gauge whether Washington and Tehran can actually find common ground and reach a peace agreement, with the US stance shifting daily,” said Mr Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.

Ceasefire mostly holding

The US-Israeli bombing killed thousands of people in Iran before it was suspended in a ceasefire in early April.

Israel has also killed thousands more and driven hundreds of thousands from their homes in Lebanon, which it invaded in pursuit of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia.

Iranian strikes on Israel and neighbouring Gulf states have killed dozens of people.

The Iran ceasefire has mostly held, though there was a spike in attacks on shipping and on Gulf states in early May when Mr Trump announced a naval mission to reopen the strait, only to call it off after just 48 hours.

This week saw a new volley of drones launched at Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which said they came from Iraq where militia allied to Iran operate.

Jordan reported shooting down a drone on May 20.

Mr Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said when they launched the war that their aims were to curb Iran’s support for regional militias, dismantle its nuclear programme, destroy its missile capabilities and make it easier for Iranians to topple their rulers.

But the war has yet to deprive Iran of its stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium or its ability to threaten neighbours with missiles, drones and proxy militias.

The Islamic Republic’s clerical leadership, which had faced a mass uprising at the start of the year, withstood the superpower onslaught with no sign of organised opposition. REUTERS